From the neck-to-neck Best Actress race to probable record-breakers, here’s all you need to watch out for at Monday’s Oscars ceremony.
Many winners are predictable, but there are several contested categories. And how many Oscars will “Oppenheimer” win? At least seven.
As inevitable as “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) felt last year on its way to collecting seven Oscars including Best Picture, this year’s frontrunner, Christopher Nolan’s historic epic “Oppenheimer” (Universal) also feels undeniable for at minimum seven Oscars including Best Picture and Director. With 13 Oscar nominations, the film has swept all the precursor awards, so its final Oscar take could be more than the seven it won at the BAFTAs. But it won’t win everything.
With “Oppenheimer,” Nolan delivered a serious but entertaining portrait of a man (Cillian Murphy as the theoretical physicist) who must confront how he changed the world — and not for the better. The compelling narrative delivered almost $1 billion at the global box office. Nolan challenged his crew to create everything possible in front of the cameras and avoid digital VFX. (Hence, no VFX nomination.) Nolan cast 73 speaking parts (many with recognizable actors), including 18 aging roles that had to pass muster with unforgiving IMAX cameras.
As inevitable as “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) felt last year on its way to collecting seven Oscars including Best Picture, this year’s frontrunner, Christopher Nolan’s historic epic “Oppenheimer” (Universal) also feels undeniable for at minimum seven Oscars including Best Picture and Director. With 13 Oscar nominations, the film has swept all the precursor awards, so its final Oscar take could be more than the seven it won at the BAFTAs. But it won’t win everything.
With “Oppenheimer,” Nolan delivered a serious but entertaining portrait of a man (Cillian Murphy as the theoretical physicist) who must confront how he changed the world — and not for the better. The compelling narrative delivered almost $1 billion at the global box office. Nolan challenged his crew to create everything possible in front of the cameras and avoid digital VFX. (Hence, no VFX nomination.) Nolan cast 73 speaking parts (many with recognizable actors), including 18 aging roles that had to pass muster with unforgiving IMAX cameras.
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How can “Oppenheimer” lose? Nothing will overtake it, as its closest competitors, feminist comedies “Barbie” (Warner Bros.’ $1 billion blockbuster) and “Poor Things” (Searchlight’s arthouse hit), with eight and 11 nominations respectively, both lack the same gravitas.
What could they win? Emma Stone is in contention for Best Actress, but one possible scenario could leave “Poor Things” empty-handed. If Stone loses Actress and “Barbie” takes Costumes and Production Design, “Poor Things” could wind up with nothing. While it won five BAFTAs and thus has international support, the film is more divisive stateside.
Directors Greta Gerwig and Yorgos Lanthimos both missed BAFTA nods, but did land DGA slots, along with Nolan, who won. Gerwig missed a directing Oscar slot. After the Academy switched two-time screenwriter Oscar nominees Gerwig and Noah Baumbach’s based-on-an-unwritten-character scenario from Original to Adapted, a sympathy vote for Gerwig became a factor in the race. But the feminist comedy is up against strong competition from Cord Jefferson’s popular “American Fiction,” which has repeatedly won precursor writing awards like the USC Scripter, and “Oppenheimer,” which can’t win everything.
Among the crafts, while “Oppenheimer” is likely to take Cinematography, Score, and Editing, it is competing with “Barbie” and “Poor Things” for Costume and Production Design.
As inevitable as “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) felt last year on its way to collecting seven Oscars including Best Picture, this year’s frontrunner, Christopher Nolan’s historic epic “Oppenheimer” (Universal) also feels undeniable for at minimum seven Oscars including Best Picture and Director. With 13 Oscar nominations, the film has swept all the precursor awards, so its final Oscar take could be more than the seven it won at the BAFTAs. But it won’t win everything.
With “Oppenheimer,” Nolan delivered a serious but entertaining portrait of a man (Cillian Murphy as the theoretical physicist) who must confront how he changed the world — and not for the better. The compelling narrative delivered almost $1 billion at the global box office. Nolan challenged his crew to create everything possible in front of the cameras and avoid digital VFX. (Hence, no VFX nomination.) Nolan cast 73 speaking parts (many with recognizable actors), including 18 aging roles that had to pass muster with unforgiving IMAX cameras.
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How can “Oppenheimer” lose? Nothing will overtake it, as its closest competitors, feminist comedies “Barbie” (Warner Bros.’ $1 billion blockbuster) and “Poor Things” (Searchlight’s arthouse hit), with eight and 11 nominations respectively, both lack the same gravitas.
What could they win? Emma Stone is in contention for Best Actress, but one possible scenario could leave “Poor Things” empty-handed. If Stone loses Actress and “Barbie” takes Costumes and Production Design, “Poor Things” could wind up with nothing. While it won five BAFTAs and thus has international support, the film is more divisive stateside.
Directors Greta Gerwig and Yorgos Lanthimos both missed BAFTA nods, but did land DGA slots, along with Nolan, who won. Gerwig missed a directing Oscar slot. After the Academy switched two-time screenwriter Oscar nominees Gerwig and Noah Baumbach’s based-on-an-unwritten-character scenario from Original to Adapted, a sympathy vote for Gerwig became a factor in the race. But the feminist comedy is up against strong competition from Cord Jefferson’s popular “American Fiction,” which has repeatedly won precursor writing awards like the USC Scripter, and “Oppenheimer,” which can’t win everything.
Among the crafts, while “Oppenheimer” is likely to take Cinematography, Score, and Editing, it is competing with “Barbie” and “Poor Things” for Costume and Production Design.
Given Nolan’s British roots, even the international block is behind “Oppenheimer,” leaving the most competitive European favorites, Jonathan Glazer’s “The Zone of Interest” (A24) and Justine Triet’s “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon), which France did not submit for the Oscar, to pick up five Oscar nominations apiece. “Anatomy of a Fall” could win Best Original Screenplay, while “The Zone of Interest” is likely to score Best International Feature and Sound. Since Sundance, A24 has backed first-time director DGA nominee Celine Song’s “Past Lives,” starring Greta Lee and Teo Yoo in a story about the road not taken. They may have to settle for their Best Feature and Director wins at the Indie Spirits.
Lately losing ground is Martin Scorsese’s true crime story “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple TV+), which racked up an impressive 10 nominations, including Best Director, Actress (Lily Gladstone) and Supporting Actor (Robert De Niro). Gladstone could mark the film’s only win.
Also in the Best Picture lineup of 10, which this year aligned with the PGA nominations, are DGA and BAFTA nominee Alexander Payne’s Christmas hit “The Holdovers” (Focus). It will land a win for Supporting Actress (Da’Vine Joy Randolph) and, possibly, for Comedy Globe and CCA winner Paul Giamatti.
Netflix’s ace awards team landed a raft of Oscar nominations including “Rustin” (Best Actor Colman Domingo), “Nyad” (Best Actress Annette Bening and Best Supporting Actress Jodie Foster), and seven for “Maestro,” including Best Picture, Actor, and Original Screenplay (Bradley Cooper) and Best Actress (Carey Mulligan). The likeliest Netflix wins are Kazu Hiro for Best Makeup and Hairstyling (“Maestro”) and Wes Anderson for live-action short (“The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar”).
As always, the question for Academy-wide voting is: Who has seen the movie? For once, two of the top contenders, “Oppenheimer” and “Barbie,” are global box office juggernauts, for which the Academy is grateful. More fans will tune in to the show on March 10 as a result.
My final list of 23 Oscar picks and spoilers is below.
Best Picture: “Oppenheimer”
Spoiler: “The Zone of Interest”
Bottom Line: There was a moment when Jonathan Glazer’s holocaust film seemed to surge after its December 15 opening, but with only three wins on its BAFTA home turf, that scenario became unlikely. There’s nothing to challenge the mighty “Oppenheimer.” After “Dunkirk” didn’t land Best Director or Picture wins, it’s Nolan’s time.
Best Director: Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”)
Spoiler: Yorgos Lanthimos (“Poor Things”)
Bottom Line: While “Poor Things” landed 11 Oscar nominations and is challenging “Oppenheimer” in several craft categories, director will go to the long overdue Nolan, who was nominated for directing only once before, for “Dunkirk.”
Best Actor: Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”)
Spoiler: Paul Giamatti (“The Holdovers”)
Bottom Line: Both actors give the performances of their careers. Oscar first-timer Murphy commands the big screen with his deep blue eyes, bass voice, and gaunt silhouette. After winning the Globe (Drama), BAFTA, and SAG, the Irish actor is favored to win, with international voters on his side. Once-nominated American Giamatti (“Cinderella Man”), who also won the Globe (Comedy) and beat Murphy at the Critics Choice Awards (CCA), gives a heart-tugging performance as a grumpy teacher marooned for the holidays with a rebellious student. But finally, gravitas and degree of difficulty often trump comedy.
Best Actress: Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
Spoiler: Emma Stone (“Poor Things”)
Bottom Line: This race is close. Gladstone started out by winning a raft of critics’ prizes and the Globe (Drama), while Stone won Comedy and then the CCA and BAFTA as well, where Gladstone did not summon a nomination, showing weak international support for “Killers.” But then Gladstone won the more mainstream SAG Award. Although many believe Gladstone should have run in Supporting given her lack of dialogue, Gladstone held her own with Leonardo DiCaprio as her husband, and would mark the first Native American winner of the Best Actress award. She has charmed many supporters on the awards circuit. This could mark the only win for Martin Scorsese’s Osage epic, which peaked early. Voters may not want to repeat “The Irishman” scenario: 10 nominations, no wins. For her part, Stone has already won one Oscar (“La La Land”), but that hasn’t stopped Oscar voters in the past (Frances McDormand boasts three). The level of acting challenge could be the deciding factor: Stone created five phases in order to portray Bella Baxter in “Poor Things,” who starts out as a grown woman with a baby’s brain implanted in her skull, and gradually matures into a curious and questing creature who learns how to function in the world without shame. On the other hand, the in-demand star will have other turns in the Oscar box.
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